Friday, October 17, 2008

Bullies, Saber-Rattling, and the Weeks Between the Election and the Inauguration

Last night, I had the opportunity to attend a special event hosted by Renaissance Financial, at which Greg Valliere was the main attraction. Aside from describing various election and financial scenarios he raised the situation in which Israel might try to knock out nuclear sites in Iran in the period between the election and inauguration of the new president.

I took the opportunity to ask him, during Q and A, what evidence he has seen that Israel has the ability to pull this off. Given that Israel doesn't have the long range refueling equipment it would need (and the US recently refused to sell it, opting instead to place a powerful, but US controlled radar station in the Negev), the fact that targets in Iran are spread out, buried, and heavily reinforced, that they may acquire new Russian anti-aircraft systems, and that the airspace to get there would require a fly through Iraq (meaning that the US would have to be informed of and at least tacitly approve in advance), what are the real possibilities that this could happen.

His answer referenced a book, called "Rules of Engagement", that I cannot seem to find anywhere. The book was a work of fiction that detailed specifics of what an attack on Iran might look like. Apparently the book was good enough that President Bush contacted the author to get some insight into the issue.

Despite all of the saber rattling which is holding the populations of both nations hostage, I came across an interesting article about an Iranian boy who needed advanced cancer care and was eventually admitted to and is currently being treated in Israel. His father made a point to say how touched he is by the sympathies and support of the Israeli people, and also was very explicit to say that the Iranian people themselves do not hate Israel.

It is nice to see that even in the midst of such a tense situation, there are still those who treat humans as humans and have removed the politics, if only for a moment.

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